*Loan vs Investments*

Investoshashtra !!!📜📜📜
इनवेस्टोशास्त्र !!!📜📜📜

Today I was surprised to see board reading "Buy clothes on Easy EMI".

We are still a developing country, but our spending pattern can amaze even developed countries.

That made me think actually from a consumer perspective, loan and Investment are two sides of same coin. Both of them fulfill a person's desire which is not affordable today. Loan given instant gratification whereas Investments doesn't.

Then why is loan a cuss words, while savings and investments are habits taught us from childhood.

In case of *loan we trade our future income today.* As we all know future is uncertain and tomorrow's expense are going to be much more than what it is now. *So, when it's not affordable today, how will it be paid tomorrow.*

Secondly, even in future needs will keep escalating, how that will be taken care of.. which might prompt for another loan and drag us to never ending vicious circle of EMI.

It's prudent to understand, impulsive buying on loan (In form of credit card, personal loan or consumer loan) might give temporary delight, but comes with penalty in the form of higher interest and a never ending stress, whereas buying it with own savings or investments gives satisfaction and contentment.

I think that was the reason our parents used to enjoy and cherish their big purchases. As they used to plan, work hard and compromise on many small things to buy it. *Every purchase was a long awaited dream and so used to carry enormous value to them.*

So, try *atleast never to buy your WANTS on loan* and *plan in advance for your NEEDS as well as WANTS* to avoid your financial future from getting derailed.

Have a wonderful debt free weekend and life ahead.

Regards,
Raj Talati
www.rajtalati-abminvestment.blogspot.com

Don't gamble with Yellow sign of fuel Gauge

Investoshashtra !!!📜📜📜
ईनवेस्टोशास्त्र.!!!📜📜📜

Today morning while on my way back from jogging, I saw a person riding on his bike and pushing other vehicle which ran out of petrol.

Whether it is laziness or illogical thinking that people keep testing their vehicles fuel efficiency and most of the time end up running out of gas and in accordance with Murphy's law "at a location where there's no gas station".😔😔

Similar is the situation of most of the millennials. Inspite of having a good take home salary they end their month dragging their vehicle to the next fuel station, with the help of friend as the last rescue (who is more of a enemy in mask of friend named as credit card or consumer loan.)

Burdened with big EMI's, partying with friends, going to pub, restaurants, vacations, latest gazette, big billion sale, impulsive buying is the way of life for them.

Friends and relatives can push their vehicle to fuel station just once or  twice.Then a stage comes when they are hardly left with any fuel and end up in dragging their vehicle of life to reach fuel station(Salary day). What if the vehicle breaks down (you lose your job or some medical emergency comes).

So instead of living life on the edge start live it smartly, start a #Good EMI. (http://www.franklintempletonmutualfund.in/thegoodemi/ )

Good habits are hard to form but very easy to live with.

This weekend have fueltank full of happiness.

Regards,
Raj Talati

Future of GOLD is glittering???

Just thought of sharing some interesting facts about gold today.

There is roughly 7000 years (beginning of civilization) of history of gold.

We all seek permanency and gold comes near to that.

Gold does not get corroded or rusted. It is not soluble in any acid. It is very difficult to demolish.

Most of the gold digged from time immemorial is still in circulation.

So we may even be using the some of the gold (recycled) that was used in the times of Rama, Krishna, Buddha and Jesus.

It is very soft that you can beat the gold down so thin that sunrays can shine through it.

The quantity of steel poured in an hour in our planet is more than what has been poured for gold since the civilization. That is how limited the availability of the gold is.

It is estimated that total gold available (in circulation and storage) in the world is 1,65,000 tonnes.

1 tonne is 1000 Kgs. At Rs.3000/- a gram, the cost of 1kg of gold is Rs.30 lakhs. So 1 tonne of gold is worth Rs.300 crore.

Indians privately own anywhere between 15,000 to 20,000 tonnes of gold. Even pegging it at 15,000 tonnes, the value comes above Rs.45 lakhs crore.

Since I cannot not talk about equity, the entire fund management industry in the country only manages Rs.6 lakh crore worth of equity assets.

Indian government owns only around 550 tonnes of gold.

No one knows how much gold the Indian temples have.

Tirupathi is estimated to have gold worth Rs.90,000 crores. Around 4000 kgs of gold is offered annually by his devotees to Lord Balaji. Interestingly as per legend, Balaji borrowed from Kubera 1.14 crore coins of gold for his marriage. Marriages have always been expensive in this country. By any standard, Balaji’s wedding with Padmavathi is the most expensive marriage that has ever happened so far in our world.

Till few years ago, we never knew Lord Padmanabha is so rich. Is that why he is very relaxed (ananda sayanam)? The very conservative estimate suggests that the value of gold in his abode is around Rs.4 lakh crore.

Reading various estimates and guesstimates looks like we (including deities) may have even 30,000+ tonnes of gold in our country. So we own around 20% of the entire gold in the world.

This means at today’s price, we have Rs.90 lakh crore worth of gold. India can be amazingly rich and poor at the same time.

Since gold is so malleable, just one gram of gold can be beaten into a sheet of one square metre.

The entire gold available in the world today can easily fit within a cube measuring 67 feet. Just one good shipping container would do. Golden Voyage!

75% of the gold available today has been extracted only after 1910.

The U.S.government (Fed Reserve + FortKnox) has close to 10,000 tonnes of gold.

During great depression, in 1933, U.S. government banned private holding of gold. People were ordered to handover the gold they have and were provided instead with dollars of equivalent value. Once the process was over, the government devalued the currency by over 40% eroding people’s wealth overnight. This coupled with high inflation was an extremely tough time for its citizens.

This ban was subsequently lifted only in 1975 and Americans were again allowed to own gold.

Since China has lot of dollar or dollar denominated assets; they understand the above risk better than anybody else. Chinese people were not allowed to own gold for more than 40 years and possessing gold was a severely punishable offence. Sometime during last decade this ban was removed and China has been encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver.

Talking about silver, Buffett who rarely touches commodity, purchased 37% of the entire silver available in the world (yes, you read it right) in late nineties and sold it some time in the middle of the last decade. I think that considering the growing industrial demand and limited supply then, he saw value in purchasing the same and selling it at a very good profit. Silver was selling at abysmally low prices during the time of his purchase.

Every year, the new gold produced / recycled is consumed 50% as jewellery, 40% for investments (including ETFs) and 10% for industry. I was under the impression gold has no industrial use whatsoever till one of our client told me that electronics industry uses gold.

Though South Africa has been one of the world’s largest producers of gold, its citizens were not allowed to own gold till 2009.

For sports fan, do you know that Olympic gold medal is not made of gold! A ‘gold’ medal contains only 6 grams of gold. Only till 1912 Olympics, the gold medals were actually made of gold.

In 1991, our country’s situation was so bad that 65 tonnes of gold was taken out of the country  and mortgaged to tide over external payment crisis.

If you are worried that gold’s supply would get exhausted soon, fear not!

About 10 billion tonnes – 10,000 million tonnes (yes, you read it right) of gold is estimated to be held in the oceans of the world. An economically viable model of extraction is being explored.

Necessity is the mother of invention. If gold prices continue to rise and if the demand would only increase, who knows, a technological innovation can happen in extracting gold from ocean.

May be we can all then plan for building with our own golden bathrooms and specially bath tub so that we can have a golden bath....

What about our bappida???

Ensure chicken is not pecking up your investments...

There were Two grains lying side by side on the fertile soil. 

The first grain said: “I want to grow up! I want to put down roots deep into the ground and sprout from the ground. I dream to blossom in delicate buds and proclaim the coming of spring. I want to feel the warm rays of sun and the dew drops on my petals!”.

This grain grew up and became a beautiful flower.

The second grain said: “I’m afraid. If I put down my roots into the ground, I don’t know what they will face there. If I grow tender stems, they can be damaged by wind. If I grow flowers, they may be disrupted. So I’d rather wait for the safer time.

Thus the second grain was waiting, until the chicken that passed by did not peck it.

I found similar is the situation of Indian investor they are always fearful about their investments in equity. What would happen if market will go down, what if GDP growth would not be as expected, what if inflation rises, what if I would loose my hard earned money, why should I pay fees to advisor, why should invest in Mutual funds.

Now we are having almost 22 years of history of mutual fund investment, not a single fund has not given return lesser then market, inspite of seeing all the worst a economy can face in this 22 years. We have seen a government for 13 days, a communist supported 3rd front government, Asian Financial crisis,Kargil war, Sanctions imposed on us due to nuclear test, Tech Bubble,9/11 attack, Ketan Parekh scam, terrorist attacks of parliament and of Mumbai, Corruption/scams, Sub prime crisis and lot more.

Inspite, of that there are funds which has given annualised returns to the tune of 24%, which even god of investment Warren Buffet have not been able to generate consistently for such a long period. 

Which means if someone would have invested Rs.100000 in the fund 20 years back that would have been worth 80.00 Lakhs, i.e multiplied his money 80 times or have made an SIP of Rs.5000 (Total Investment Rs.11.80 Lakhs) per month would have transformed into Rs.2.51 Crores.

So let us try to reap the benefit of equity investments and not become like other seed waiting for inflation and taxes in the form of chicken to peck it.

More reason to cheer for Proud Parents of a girl Child

Lakshmi is the Goddess of wealth, and it is believed that a girl child will bring prosperity and wealth to the family she is born in. 

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi also adds one reason to prove it. To show his commitment towards girl child and for the campaign “Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao” he has launched a scheme exclusively for a girl child named “Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana”.

I do not know the social outcome of the scheme, but for sure financially it is one of the best schemes for proud parents of a daughter.

Appending below Features of the scheme :

Salient Features of Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana

Who can open this account? - Parents or a legal guardian of a girl child who is 10 years of age or younger than that, can open this account in the name of the child. For initial operations of the scheme, one year grace period has been provided to make it 11 years of age. With this one year grace period in age, which is valid up to December 1, 2015, you can get this account opened for a girl child who is born between December 2, 2003 and December 1, 2004.

9.1% Tax-Free Rate of Interest - This scheme has been flagged off with a 9.1% rate of interest, higher than that of PPF which stands at 8.7%. But, this rate is not fixed at 9.1% for the whole tenure and is subject to a revision every financial year like all other small savings schemes, including PPF.

Prior to the budget announcement, 9.1% annual return seemed unattractive, but not anymore, as it has been made tax exempt now. Interest amount gets added to your balance amount in the account and compounded either monthly or annually, as per your choice. Monthly interest compounding will be done only on your balance amount on completed thousands.

Duration of the Scheme - The scheme will mature on completion of 21 years from the date of opening of the account. If the account is not closed on maturity after 21 years, the balance amount will continue to earn interest as specified for the scheme every year. In case the marriage of your daughter takes place before the maturity date i.e. completion of 21 years, the operation of this account will not be permitted beyond the date of her marriage and no interest will be payable beyond the date of marriage.

Deposit for 14 years only – Though the scheme has duration of 21 years, you are required to make contributions only for the first 14 years, after which you need not deposit any further amount and your account will keep earning the interest rate applicable for the remaining 7 years. 

Premature Closure - The account can also be closed prematurely as your daughter completes 18 years of age provided she gets married before the withdrawal. As the maximum permissible age of the girl child is set as 10 years, the scheme effectively carries a minimum duration of 8 years i.e. 18 years of exit age – 10 years of entry age.

Partial Withdrawal - It is also allowed to withdraw 50% of the balance standing at the end of the preceding financial year, but only after your daughter attains the age of 18 years. So, effectively it has a complete lock-in period of at least 8 years, before which you cannot take out any money for any purposes.

Minimum/Maximum Investment - You need to deposit a minimum of Rs. 1,000 in a financial year to keep your account active. Failure to do so will make your account inactive and it could be revived only after paying a penalty of Rs. 50 along with the minimum amount required to be deposited for that year, which currently stands at Rs. 1,000.

Also, you can invest a maximum of up to Rs. 1,50,000 in a financial year. You can make your contribution to this account in as many number of times as you like.

How many accounts can be opened? - You can open only one account in the name of one girl child and a maximum of two accounts in the name of two different children. However, you can open three accounts if you are blessed with twin girls on the second occasion or if the first birth itself results into three girl children.

Nomination Facility - Nomination facility is not available in this scheme. In an unfortunate event of the death of the girl child, the account will be closed immediately and the balance will be paid to the guardian of the account holder.

Documents Required - Birth Certificate of the girl child, along with the identity proof and residence proof of the guardian, are the mandatory documents required to open an account under this scheme. You can approach any post office or authorised branches of some of the commercial banks to get this account opened.

Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana vs. Public Provident Fund (PPF)

Budget 2015 has made this scheme quite attractive for the investors. If you are an investor who exhausts entire PPF limit by depositing Rs.150000 and want to save for your girl child’s marriage or higher education. Would recommend to first investing in this scheme and then to PPF, as this scheme provides you safe investment with much higher returns.

My Times of India Article Dated 30/12/2014 on "Time to take New Year Resolution"

"Time to make some New Year Resolution"

My Times of India Article of 30/09/2014 on "Benefits of Diversification"

"Benefits of Diversification"

My Times of India Article 23/9/14 on "Goals and Risk Tolerance"

"First Figure out your Goals, Risk Tolerance"

How to restraint from being a member of CLUB 99

​Once upon a time, there lived a King who, despite his luxurious lifestyle, was neither happy nor content.

One day, the King came upon a servant who was singing happily while he worked. This fascinated the King; why was he, the Supreme Ruler of the Land, unhappy and gloomy, while a lowly servant had so much joy.

The King asked the servant, 'Why are you so happy?'

The man replied, 'Your Majesty, I am nothing but a servant, but my family and I don't need too much - just a roof over our heads and warm food to fill our tummies.'

The king was not satisfied with that reply. Later in the day, he sought the advice of his most trusted advisor. After hearing the King's woes and the servant's story, the advisor said, 'Your Majesty, I believe that the servant Has not been made part of The 99 Club.'

'The 99 Club? And what exactly is that?' the King inquired.

The advisor replied, 'Your Majesty, to truly know what The 99 Club is, place 99 Gold coins in a bag and leave it at this servant's doorstep.'

When the servant saw the bag, he took it into his house. When he opened the bag, he let out a great shout of joy... So many gold coins!

He began to count them. After several counts, he was at last convinced that there were 99 coins. He wondered, 'What could've happened to that last gold coin? Surely, no one would leave 99 coins!'

He looked everywhere he could, but that final coin was elusive. Finally, exhausted he decided that he was going to have to work harder than ever to earn that gold coin and complete his collection.

From that day, the servant's life was changed. He was overworked, horribly grumpy, and castigated his family for not helping him make that 100th gold coin. He stopped singing while he worked.

Witnessing this drastic transformation, the King was puzzled. When he sought his advisor's help, the advisor said, 'Your Majesty, the servant has now officially joined The 99 Club.'

He continued, 'The 99 Club is a name given to those people who have enough to be happy but are never contented, because they're always yearning and Striving for that extra 1, saying to themselves: 'Let me get that one final thing and then I will be happy for life.' We can be happy, even with very little in our lives, but the minute we're given something bigger and better, we want even more! We lose our sleep, our happiness, we hurt the people around us; all these as a price for our growing needs and desires.

Same is the situation with most of the investors, they are also engaged in converting 99 to hundred, without knowing they might need much lesser then that.

Financial planning is a big eye opener and will help you to avoid being an member of CLUB 99 and help you to live your life happily.

True example of WEALTH Creation

We are optimistic about "ACCHE DIN AANE WAALE HAIN.".

If last 20 years were not good then going by above phrase next 10 years are going to be extraordinary.Last almost 20 years have been the best days an investor can wish for but the problem is we ourselves are not confident of our economy and power of Young India.

Investors confidently invest in Gold, Corporate Fixed Deposit, FD of Co-operative bank and above all real estate.But when it comes to equity they shy away from it.

Demonstrating herewith how equity mutual funds in real life can create wealth for the investors.

"Reliance Growth Fund is an Equity Diversified fund launched 19 years back wherein its NAV has moved from Rs.10 to Rs.615.59 that means investor has multiplied his money 62 times.

It is evident that there is no other asset class which can beat performance of Equity and specially investments made through Mutual fund route. Many a times investor do compare returns of equity with real estate. 

Let's see the comparison - 

If one had invested Rs.10 lacs in this fund 19 years back it would have grown to 6.2 crores that too TAX FREE and to add some other benefit is liquidity, daily valuation,transparency, diversification, part redeemable, no legal cost or hurdles, well regulated etc etc...

I leave it to the real estate investor to evaluate that how much of them can confidently claim similar returns for their real estate portfolio as a whole.

Disclaimer : Performance of fund taken only for demonstration purpose, should not be considered as our recommendation. Please consult you adviser before investing.

Undoubtedly investor should allocate funds to different assets  according to time horizon and goals.But, Investors are very comfortable with investment in FD, Gold and Real estate but when it comes to Equities every one thinks that it is a speculative asset class. History has proved that you can speculate anything for a short period, but in long term fundamental works.

Many a times the excuse given for not investing in equity is of lower risk profile, but we forget that risk profile is evaluated on 3 aspect i.e Willingness,Ability and Need. The most important aspect with most of the individuals is Need, may be they are not willing to take risk and might not have ability as well. But in today's high inflationary scenario everyone's NEED should make them a equity investor. For today's investor equity is not an option but a necessity.

So evaluate your future needs, make equity mutual funds your friend for wealth creation,but in consultation with your financial advisor.

It's your Life - Make It LARGE

Every individual's what he is today is result of small things which he/she did in past, same is very well narrated by Superstar King Khan in one of the recent commercial : I Quote -

"Large kab banta hain, Woh pehla break large lagta tha,

Woh pehla role, Woh pehli Gaadi,

Pehli Girlfriend?,

Bachpan ki galiya large lagti thi, theatre ka stage,

uh a - us waqt to small screen bhi mere liye large thi,

20-50 log taaliya mar dete, large lagta tha,

Lekin aaj wohi sab, CHOTA lagta hain,

Jo haanth lag jaye woh kya large,

Lekin LARGE banta hain UNHI CHOTI cheezo se,

Small Milate Jao large banate Jao,

Its your Life MAKE IT LARGE.

Unquote-

If we go through our past we will find above lines are very relevant for each one of us, what ever we are today is the result of the small small right or wrong things we did in past.

Each one of us can narrate a similar experience of their past, it looks like a dream that how by TIME this small decisions becomes so big for us. Every one of us must be at higher level from where they started. The people who are at start of their career will be at much higher position then at which they are today, if they continue giving there efforts sincerely.

Similar is the case of SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) - It is small small amount which you contribute regularly on monthly basis for years and without our knowing by time it grows much bigger then our expectation.

As an advisor I always advise my clients that every individual who has an asset need to write a will or every individual who is earning and having dependents needs to have a life insurance.

Similarly, I feel each and every individual who is not blessed by legacy of wealth needs to have an SIP. It will help them to achieve there goals and dreams by just contributing small amount over years effortlessly. So whether you wish to invest for your child's marriage or education, for a house or retirement or for a foreign tour or charity what you need is an SIP and time by your side.

Many a times investor feels SIP means equity/shares but they can do it in a fixed income or Gold fund depending on their risk profile and needs.

So if you have not started one yet, start it today aur aap bhi "Small milate jao or LARGE banate jao - It's your life, make it LARGE".

Financial Mathematics -Calculating rate of returns before investment - Let's learn how

It's a common practice in financial industry that products are sold by projecting maturity value. Reason is human mind always looks at maturity value in today's term, but forget to measure impact of inflation and rise in expenses due to standard of living. We just get obsessed with the higher absolute value and forget the actual return it generates. Instead of focusing on maturity value if we start concentrating on returns we can take much better decision. Illustrating how just looking at maturity value can make our plans a haywire and that too when we actually in need of it.

One of my friend Vivek bought an Life Insurance policy for his son's education in the year 1999 for an 18 year term on becoming a proud father. The TOTAL cost for a good engineering course was almost Rs.40000 at that time.Let me remind you during late 90's a person at senior executive level used to get salary in range of Rs.20000 to 40000 pm. Household exps. for a family of 4 for an average middle class person was in the range of Rs.4000 to Rs.5000 pm. 

With an intention that his son should not compromise during his engineering studies he planned for an maturity of Rs.1 Lac, for which was required to pay premium of Rs.3000 equal to his one month Exp. or 75% of his monthly salary.

Inspite of planning for double the amount required. When his son will reach in STD 12th i.e in the year 2017, I doubt whether he would be able to pay even the tuition and entrance examination fees for engineering courses with maturity of above policy.

Biggest reason was he thought everything in 1999's context and he thought by paying Rs.3000 which was a big amount for him at that point in time he has secured his child's education.  As against that if he would have calculated the returns he might have understood its meager 7% per annum.

Let's learn how to calculate returns so that we do not face such problems.

Open an excel sheet and go on "Insert" select 'Function' under category select "Financial" and in window search for function type "Rate". The following box will appear after clicking OK.

Inputs ;

NPER is no. of period - In Vivek's case NPER is 18 years i.e tenure of payment. In case frequency of payment is Monthly multiply it by 12,in case of Quarterly by 4 and for Half yearly by 2.

PMT Payment - periodic payments or regular payment e.g Insurance Premium, EMI Installment, Monthly Post recurring Amt. etc.In case of an FD (Its Only 1 time Payment) so leave this filed blank.
In case of Vivek it is Rs.-3000.00. In case we are making payment that should be shown as (-) and receiving money should be shown as (+) or nothing.

PV - This field should be used in case of single or one time payment like for FD,Bonds, MF investment etc.In our case as it is periodic investment we will keep it blank.

FV - This is the desired corpus or the maturity amount product offers or required.As funds are flowing in we need not put any sign before it. 

Type - Applicable only in case of periodic or regular payment. In case you are paying in advance then you should put 1 and in case of end put 0.In our example it is 1 as we pay premium in advance.

Guess - It is not visible in above picture but in excel sheet when you will scroll down you will find it, no need to put anything in it. But in case any error comes then you should put approx. return which you think it would give. Most of the time you do not require to provide anything in this field.

Let's put above data and find the result which would be as follows :

You can see the Formula result as 7% at the bottom. In case frequency is taken as Half Yearly you need to multiply result with 2, for Quarterly by 4 and in case of Monthly by 12.

In this way you can calculate Interest on EMI and returns on FD, SIP, Insurance Policy etc...

While planning do not forget to consider effect of inflation and rise in exps. due to standard of leaving.

"SAFETY"- No such word in Financial Dictionary

As per dictionary.com meaning of safety defined as: the state of being safe; freedom from the occurrence or risk of injury, danger, or loss.

On Googling for meaning of SAFETY in financial terms, I could not find a single dictionary which explains - safety. I did found words like : safe harbour, safety net, safe heaven etc etc...and the meaning of any of them didn't matched with dictionary meaning.

Investopedia.com do define "safe assets" as 

"Assets which, in and of themselves, do not carry a high likelihood of lawsuit risk. Mere ownership of this type of asset does not expose the asset owner to a significant risk of litigation.

Assets such as stocks, mutual funds, bonds, bank accounts and your personal residence are examples of safe assets." Which is totally different from what Indian investor thinks.

The recent development of Cyprus prompted me to search for meaning of "SAFETY in financial world".

First let me take you through some facts about pattern of Investment of Indian investor - As per the RBI's 2011-12 annual report bank FD's or contractual savings(Small Savings Scheme, LIC) constitutes almost 85% of total financial savings where as currency is almost 10% leaving 4-5% for Equities. 

The obvious reason for such a high allocation to FD is SAFETY. We perceive word safety as "To get back the capital and Interest on maturity date without any volatility". That might be the reason we rely mostly on all the government institutions like : Post offices, LIC, PSU Banks.

But, fallout of some of the biggest bank and government institution in U.S and Europe are the best example that even Govt. institutions are riskier at times and we may end up losing part of our money. Why to go to U.S we have example of our own government sponsored UTI US'64 scheme wherein government did paid back money of investors but with a delay of 6 years and that too in the form of 6% tax free bonds.(Just think of condition of a father who had invested money for his son's education or daughter's marriage)

Regarding Guarantee for repayment of Bank FD, RBI portal says "The deposits kept in different branches of a bank are aggregated for the purpose of insurance cover and a maximum amount upto Rupees one lakh is paid."  subject to bank have paid premium to deposit insurance and credit guarantee corporation .

Now, Let's understand what has happened in Cyprus, just to bail out economy "Government has imposed tax on bank deposits in Cyprus, they are taxed @6.75% on their  deposits less then EURO 100000.00 and @9.75 for more then that ".In simple terms one fine day suddenly government reduced your bank balances as well as FD value by 6.75%- 9.75%. Just think how would you feel if you woke up in the morning and found that government has decided to take away 6.75% of your money".

Even in case of India it is happening that our FD are reduced by almost 4-5% every year. Let me explain you how : The current CPI inflation rate is about 10.50% and Tax free FD rates of SBI is 5.78% (8.50% less 32% Tax rate). So the cost of goods which I can purchase today for Rs.100 becomes Rs.110.50 (CPI@10.50%) at the end of year whereas my FD value net of tax comes to Rs.106.00. So to buy the same goods I need to add Rs.4.50 to my FD amount, don't you think even we are paying a tax of 4%-5% year on year on our bank FD.

The purpose of highlighting above facts is not that we should not invest in FD's but we need to understand that there is no such word as safe asset class. The fall of 15% in Gold in last 3 months has proved even the safest asset class can be volatile at times.

We are now a part of the global investor community. The purpose of an investor seating in other part of the world is to make profit from his investment. Wherever and whenever he finds an opportunity he will buy into it and sells out in case of uncertainty. He is not concerned with asset class i.e. Debt, Equity,Real Estate or Commodities like Gold,Silver,Oil,Copper etc...

So it is mere foolishness to think that price of your investment in any asset class can grow perpetually or safe from all risks.

The only way to save yourself from getting in trap of any asset class is to follow a proper asset allocation strategy (Also read ;key-to-wealth-creation-asset-allocation.)

looking at above facts we can either act like an Ostrich who hides his face in the sand when attacked by a predator (assuming that if you can't see it , then anyone else also don't see you) or can take informed decision of how much amount to be allocated to FD,Gold, Real Estate or Equity so that we or our family do not need to compromise on future Dreams or Goals.

Consult your financial planner to advise you on proper asset allocation.

God to India's rescue - Strong case to overweight Equity

Mannu Singh, who was in financial difficulty, walked into a temple and started to pray. ''Listen God -I know I haven't been perfect but I really need to win the lottery. I don't have a lot of money. Please help me out.'' He left the temple, a week went by, and he hadn't won the lottery, so he walked to a church ''Come on, God,'' he said. ''I really need this money. My mom needs surgery and I have bills to pay. Please let me win the lottery.'' a week went by, and he didn't win the lottery. So, he went to a mosque and started to pray again. ''You're starting to disappoint me, God,'' he said. ''I've prayed and prayed. If you just let me win the lottery, I'll be a better person. I don't have to win the jackpot, just enough to get me out of debt. I'll give some to charity, even. Just let me win the lottery.'' Many thought this did it, so he got up and walked outside.

The clouds opened up and a booming voice said, ''Mannu, my son please please please.....atleast buy a lottery ticket.''

Similar is the situation of India. Right now we want our growth to be in place, inflation to be under control, rupee to get stronger, get rid of corruption, reduce current account deficit, reduce fiscal deficit. 

By looking at India's Pathetic situation it seems god has felt pity on us and have bought a lottery ticket and served it to us on a platter.

The biggest worry for India as of now is twin deficits i.e. Current account deficit (CAD) and Fiscal deficit. Although our finance minister is making sincere efforts to control it, by increasing import duty on gold , reducing subsidies, cutting expenses etc. etc  but all efforts are in vain. 

It seems suddenly god has listened to prayers of all the Indians.

As mentioned in my earlier Blog  "Gold : Is it really safe anymore????" ( I did pointed out that gold can't keep on increasing and would see drastic fall when positions unwinds)  In its report RBI points out, as a ratio to the CAD, gold imports were a whopping 71.9 in FY12. As a proportion of the balance of trade, gold imports were 21% in the first half of FY13. So gold import is biggest negative for our balance of payment. With recent fall of almost 15% in gold prices will breathe a big sigh of relief and will improve our CAD.

Apart from gold another big worry for India is OIL. India imports over 70 per cent of its oil demand. So a 10% rise in oil prices result in a 0.6 percent fall in growth while in the full pass-through situation, it can reduce the growth by 0.9 percent and vice versa. The Best news is that even oil has corrected to sub $100 level for 1st time in 9 months is big positive for us.

Fall in prices of Gold as well as Oil will help us to bring down current account deficit, which will inturn strengthen our currency.

Subsidy on Diesel and Kerosene adds up to our Fiscal deficit and increases inflation. So fall in oil prices also narrows down the fiscal deficit as well as inflation.

Icing on the cake is that WPI inflation has fallen to 40 month low of 5.96%.

From the above facts I strongly feel that RBI has to completely change its focus from fighting inflation to growth, which will help in generating jobs and help corporates to grow. We can expect rate cuts from RBI in policy review due on May 3rd.

All the biggest concern as far equity market is already addressed by falling Gold Prices,Oil Prices and Inflation which lays down a strong foundation for start of a new bull run. I don't say that market will start performing immediately. But, from asset allocation point of view it is time tor rebalance your portfolio and if your are into tactical asset allocation its time to be overweight on equities.

Key to WEALTH CREATION - Asset Allocation

Asset allocation plays a key role in every investors financial planning.

If, I get a chance to own a IPL Team "Dream Achievers'. How should I go for buying players,during auction.Should I buy all 15 team members as Fast Bowlers or All Rounders or Spinners or Hard Hitters. No, I need to make strategy looking at different options available, their pricing and my budget. According to that I will buy 7-8 good Batsman, 2-3 Spinners, Obviously a Wicket Keeper and 4-5 Fast bowlers, Possibly 2-3 of them being all rounders.

Depending on the ground conditions and opponent I decide the final team on the Jumping Japak Jumpak Jumpak. I might have 3 spinners and 2 pacers or 4 pacer and 1 spinner might send opener as Mr.Pinch hitter or Mr.Reliable. So I  need to put in place some strategy in buying the players as well as before start of the match.

Similarly in investments, all asset classes doesn't work at all the time, But perform in cycles. Hence if one were to invest all his savings in a single asset class then certainly he is inviting a big trouble for his future.As we all know world of finance is very uncertain and sticking to your asset allocation hold the key to success. 

Financial Planners uses asset allocation strategies not only to create wealth, but also to protect it during volatile times. It is not the maximisation of returns, but optimisation of returns that becomes the goal. This process plays a key role in determining the risk and return from your portfolio. Broadly speaking, the portfolio’s asset mix should reflect your risk taking capacities and goals. Financial Planners use different strategies of building asset allocations, some of them as follows :

Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic allocation is typically the first stage in the investment process. Based on the investor’s long-term objectives, an initial portfolio is build. It is the backbone of any investment strategy. This often forms the basic framework of an investor’s portfolio. This is a proportional combination of assets based on expected rates of return for each asset class. For example, if stocks have historically given a return of 14% per year and bonds have returned 8% per year, a mix of 50% stocks and 50% bonds would be expected to return 11% per year. Strategic asset allocation generally implies a buy-and-hold strategy. Strategic asset allocation defines the boundary of risk, and it is these boundaries that help control portfolio risk.

Constant-Weighting Asset Allocation

Strategic asset allocation has its drawbacks as it entails a buy-and-hold strategy even if a change in the value of assets causes a drift from the initially established policy mix.The constant weighing strategy helps you to continuously rebalance your portfolio. For example, if gold was declining in value, you would purchase more of it to maintain its weightage and if its value increased you should sell it. There are no hard-and-fast rules for the timing of portfolio rebalancing under strategic or constant-weighting asset allocation. Most Planners advises rebalancing to its original mix when any asset class moves more than 5-7% from its original value or alternatively on semi annual basis.

Tactical Asset Allocation

Most of the Indian investor I have follows this allocation strategy without knowing risk associated with it. There are investors who constantly want to seek returns out of market opportunities that arise. Hence, they go in for short term tactical calls. Such tactical calls create room for capitalising on unusual or exceptional investment opportunities. This is like timing the market to participate in the fluctuations and volatility that arise due to market conditions. For example, shifting a part of the portfolio from large cap stocks to mid cap stocks to take advantage of the environment is a tactical call. Tactical allocations being opportunistic in nature, Investor are advised to always prefer to maintain clear time-based and value-based entry and exit points to ensure better management. Personally, I feel it is impossible to time the market on long term basis, it is something like predicting future and one wrong call can affect your financial plan drastically.

Dynamic Asset Allocation

It is for aggressive investors who want to ride momentum at times. So, if the stock market is showing weakness, investor sell anticipating a further fall. If it is going up, he buys anticipating a further rise. Here you constantly adjust the mix of assets as markets rise and fall. This is the opposite of constant-weighting strategy. As the entire portfolio is available for action, amateur investors may turn hyper active. Especially in the high volatile times, acting on all types of information can lead to high transaction costs. Also, the tax treatment of the returns turns to disadvantages if you churn your portfolio too much. 

Finally, victory of match depends on the strategy applied by captain in selecting the players as well as ground (market) conditions.

Similarly, to achieve financial goals as well as creating wealth every investor need to follow the asset allocation strategy and stick to it in different market conditions.Financial planners plays a big role in helping them to select a strategy which suits their risk profile and tries to bring in required discipline.

Owning a house or business "OH MY GOD"

After a long time got opportunity to watch a fantastic movie "OH MY GOD". There are certain movies like Munnabhai MBBS, 3idiots, Rang De Basanti, Tare Zameen Par , can shake you inside. It has power to bring in the change required.

Huge success of above movies confirmed that Indian society is ready to appraise the libertarian attitude and the Indian  youth is daring enough to raise the issues of collectivistic problems and is ready to denounce them, to fight against them.

I know this is not a movie review blog, but together with certain other facts shown in the movie "OH MY GOD" a very relevant point related to your financial planning is also been highlighted and that is insuring your HOUSE as well as your BUSINESS.

The biggest asset an individual builds during his life is his own house and business. A small accident can wipe out your earnings of life. How many of us have overlooked at insuring these investments? The requirement of home insurance is overlooked and understated in India.

While owning a house today, what youngsters forget is the protection of their property. The financial institutions providing housing loans ensure that the individual gets himself a home loan protection policy but no one ever bothers to insure the house that is being bought. There are many convenient options available in the market that helps one not only insure the property but also the belongings.

Let's know home insurance

Home insurance plans allow you to protect your house and household items against fire and other perils, such as theft, burglary, accidental breakdowns and so on. If you intend to buy house holders' insurance, you should buy a policy that provides cover for your house as well as contents in it.

Points to remember before buying home insurance

Make sure that you read and understand the policy coverage, exceptions, exclusions in the plan. So that you don't end up like Kanjibhai in the movie. Your cover therefore, should include your house, belongings, liability to others if some mishap occurs and your living exps., if you are forced to stay in rented house. Basically, if a disaster occurs, your policy should help you to rebuild your home and replace its contents.

Take an inventory of your possessions. If you have to file a claim, two things need to be done - prove you own certain items and verify their value. Some insurance companies advise clients to go through their homes with a video camera, walk through each room, and ensure that you have everything you own, recorded.

Always make sure that you update your policy value to cover various assets that you might add to your house as well as taking care of rate of inflation.

Eligibility

Any resident Indian who is owner and/or occupant of the property can purchase a home insurance policy.

Coverage

The covers provided are :

Fire and Allied Perils - Building and Contents , Burglary (optional), Unlike shown in movie you can also take a cover for earthquake by paying additional nominal premium.

Key features

An individual with an independent house or a flat can opt for this benefit and applicable to any residential building.It covers building against risks like Fire,Lightning,Storm, Riots, Strike and Malicious damage.

In city like vadodara an house with construction area of 2500 sq.ft considering construction cost be Rs1000/sq.ft , Total cost Rs.2500000.00 you need to pay an annual premium in the range of 1300 to 1400.

Remember to cover your house for construction cost and not for the value at which you bought, as it also includes cost of land.

So, put your house insurance to be on top priority.

Unravelling NCD's (Non Convertible Debentures)

We as an investor are always tempted by higher returns, specially in a time when interest rates offered on bank FD have move down in the range of 8.5 -9 % without knowing risk associated with it.

Another such wave of offering higher returns on your investment is about to come in the form of NCD's or Non Convertible Debenture. But as we are going to invest our hard earned money we need to know nitty gritty of the instrument.

Let's understand what NCD's are:

Whenever a corporate wants to raise money from public they issue a debt paper which is for a specified period and pays a fixed interest this debt paper are known as debentures . Debentures can be convertible as well as Non convertible.

Convertible Debentures : The Debentures which pays interest at fixed rate and on maturity date are converted to Shares of the company are convertible debentures.

Non Convertible Debentures : The Debentures which pays interest at fixed rate and on maturity returns the  capital amount are NCD.

Even NCD's can be of 2 types :

• Secured Debentures : As an security it is backed by asset of the company and if it fails to pay, the investor holding the debentures can claim it through liquidation of the assets.
• Unsecured Debentures : Contrary to above it is not backed by any security in case company defaults the amount would be paid only if any amount left after paying off for the secured creditors.

Features of NCD

NCD's normally works more or less like company deposits. One advantage of NCD is they are listed on stock exchange and theoretically speaking they provide liquidity.However, there is no active market for NCDs on the wholesale debt market segment of the stock exchanges and their liquidity is low. You might not be able to find a buyer for your NCDs if their trade volumes on bourses are insignificant.

Any Indian company can raise money through NCDs if it has a tangible net worth of at least Rs 4 crore and has been sanctioned loans by banks or financial institutions which is classified as 'standard asset' and not as bad debt.

Companies seeking to raise money through NCDs have to get their issue rated by agencies such as CRISIL, ICRA, CARE and Fitch Ratings. NCDs with higher ratings are safer as this means the issuer has the ability to service its debt on time and carries lower default risk.But the rating provided is at the time of issuance and may change during the tenure.

Interest rates on NCD

Normally NCD provides a higher interest rate then the market or Bank FD and comes with long tenure. Best suited for individuals who have  lower risk profile to build their retirement corpus and also for retirees during low interest rate scenario. NCD's come with lot of interest payment options viz; monthly, quarterly, annually and Cumulative. 

Interest rates also depends on rating of the issue. Lower rating means higher interest rate and vice versa.

Taxation

Interest on NCD do not attract TDS, but interest is taxable and is added to income for that year.

Capital Gain :

NCD's are listed on stock exchange and if sold on exchange it is taxed like debt fund. If sold before 1 year,  profit will be added to income and taxed at per tax slab. But any profit made selling after 1 year and before maturity would be taxed as long term capital gain. The applicable tax rate is 10.30% without indexation.

Risk involved 

NCD has some inherent risk. Investor need to check companies financial and end uses of the funds. Checking for rating can help a bit. 

Many a times we have seen that although the issue is secured but is backed by assets which may fluctuate in valuation. Like if we take case of Gold finance company mainly engaged in finance against Gold, comes with  secured NCD's backed by asset (Gold) as guarantee. 

As we know that gold has also become an speculative asset and if there is any major fall in prices of Gold. The company might not be able to recover its loan, due to which loan default rate might increase. It may result in default of NCD payment. Investors would not be able to recover their NCD value inspite of being secured as even after liquidation of asset i.e gold the amount recovered would be much less.

Please consult your financial advisor before investing in any such instrument.

Misleading Advertisment of SBI Bank FD

Be cautious of misleading advertisement published by SBI in all leading news paper showing annualised yield of 17.77% on 5 Year tax saving Fixed deposit.
 

It considers investor to be in the highest tax bracket and also that 80C limit of Rs.100000.00 is not exhausted. It also doesn't consider taxability of interest earned.

PPF is still a better option if you wish to invest for tax saving as the interest earned would by 8.6% (subject to change every year but much better then SBI FD) as compared to tax free interest of above FD i.e 6.39% (9.25 less 30.9% of 9.25%)

Be a Lazy Investor - Saving Interest deregulated

Last week RBI came out with one of the historic decision in Indian banking history by freeing the savings bank rate. It did came out like a Diwali gift from RBI governor.I think every bank account holder would feel delighted with this decision.

Within hours of the Mr.Subbarao's announcement two of the private banks came with an advertisement about increase in Saving interest rate of full page in leading national news paper.

No doubt it will create a big hole in the profitability of some of the big banks balance sheet. But, will it really benefit account holders?

Let us evaluate:

If your average balance in a saving account remain at a level of Rs.1.00 Lac, you would get richer by Rs.166 per month and for balance more then Rs.1.00 Lac additional 50 basis points.

I think for an Lazy investor who holds such big balances in his savings account is not bothered of getting Rs.166.00 or Rs.500 per month. If he would have been really concerned might have shifted his money to Liquid funds offered by mutual funds.

These are the funds favorite with corporates but retail investor were never keen to invest in it. Liquid funds can easily fill in the gap between saving bank account and bank FD's. It gives you return more than saving account (Presently in the range of 8.5 - 9%). The only difference is you can access funds at 1 day notice i.e liquidity is available to you in 1 day instead of instantly in case of Savings account.

From safety perspective although it also bears the tag line "Mutual fund investment are subject to Market read offer document.....". But history of the fund prooves that it is as safe as your savings account the NAV of a liquid fund has never been negative for a single day in its history.(As it invest in the papers of maturiy less then 90 days)

So, as an investor if you are looking at the better returns then Saving bank should shift your surplusses to Liquid funds instead of settling at 4 or 6% of saving account returns. Additional returns can take care of your monthly telephone bills and LPG cost or a weekend with your family.

RETIREMENT - Aish or Without Cash

As an Indian we feel really proud to be one of the youngest country. But, there was time in 80's and 90's when the biggest worry for our country was rising population and because of that reason we started the campaign "Hum do Hamare Do". Today the same worry has become one of the biggest boon for our economy. 

Thanks to one of the report made by Goldmann Sachs way back in 2002 which brought this fact to limelight and resulted in biggest rally in the history of Indian equity market.

India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% hovers below the age of 35. It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37  for China and 48 for Japan.(source : wikipedia.org)

Population by Age and Sex for India
Year	Age	Both Sexes Population	Male Population	Female Population
2011	Total	1189172906	617039156	572133750
2011	0-4	118325346	62740231	55585115
2011	5-9	117592252	62539569	55052683
2011	10-14	116948795	62170835	54777960
2011	15-19	112247754	59507362	52740392
2011	20-24	105137174	55103535	50033639
2011	25-29	99548997	51787772	47761225
2011	30-34	93102734	48164565	44938169
2011	35-39	86435208	44407222	42027986
2011	40-44	76764881	39235679	37529202
2011	45-49	64989219	33146269	31842950
2011	50-54	54272103	27595085	26677018
2011	55-59	44170733	22361010	21809723

 SOURCE : U.S.Census Bureau, International Data Base.

There is no doubt India is going to be one of the strongest economy inspite of all the global, political or domestic factors.

But while looking at sparkling and shiny picture we forget there is one more fact hidden in the above data, From the above data it is clear that in next 25-30 years almost 50% of our present population would enter retirement.

For an average human being retirement age means to depend rest of his life on retirement corpus created during working span of his life. Just to understand effect of Inflation on our household exps.(inflation@8%) The cost  of present household exps. valued at Rs.25000 per month would become Rs.251000 PER MONTH after 30 years and would be Rs.1175000 PER MONTH  i.e 1.41 CRORE PER YEAR after 50 years. It really seems funny to talk of 50 years. But it is the fact of life for youngsters who are in 25-40 age group and should be eye opener for them to reconsider the amount of funds they might require in retirement age.

 

Future value of Exps. @8% Inflation rate

Post Independence the average age of an Indian was in the range of 50-55 years. But due to improved medical facilities and newer technologies it has gone up to 75-80 years(in urban India) and don't be surprised if it moves up to 95-100 years in next 30 years.

We need to seriously consider our retirement planning at an early age of our carrier or as soon as we realise its need. The biggest factor which can help us in accumulating such a bigger corpus is power of compounding and proper asset allocation.

Illustration: Let us consider that Shahid Kapoor is an young, dynamic IT employee whose age is 30 year. He plans to retire at age of 58 and he considers his expected life to be 90 years. His present household expense is Rs.25000/month and considers it to be same even after the retirement age. He feels inflation pre and post retirement to be 8%.

Now, considering above his house hold expenses at the age of 58 would be Rs.2588132.00/Year and if he manages to get return 2% more then the inflation rate post retirement i.e 10% (Net of Tax). He would need to have a retirement corpus of 6.32 Crore.

Particulars	Amount
Total Monthly Expenses	25,000
Total Annual Expenses	300,000
Inflation	8.00%
Current Age	30
Retirement Age	58
Life Expectancy	90
No. of Years for Retirement	28
Expenses in the First Year of Retirement	2,588,132
Retirement years (life expectancy-retirement age)	32
Inflation during Retirement Years	8.00%
Investment Returns on Retirement Corpus	10.00%
Net Returns	1.85%
Retirement Corpus Required	63,216,858
Deficit (Corpus Required-Assets Utilized)	63,216,858
No of Years for Retirement	28
Expected Investment Returns	15.00%
Lumpsum Funding Required (If Available)	1,262,680
Monthly Investments Required	12,352

It seems to be impossible to accumulate the above amount during the working tenure of 28 years for an average person. But it requires much lesser then the EMI you pay for your Sedan (car) , expecting a return of 15% you require to invest just Rs.12352.00 per month. So delay your purchase of car or house by 3 or 5 years and safeguard your retirement.

As there is no social security system available for citizen of India we need to plan and protect our retirement life ourselves. Many of Central or State government or employees Covered under EPF feel relaxed that their retirement would be taken care of by there EPF account. Just showing below the value of EPF account of Mr.Shahid Kapoor present salary Rs.35000/Month and expects to appreciate 10% YOY.

Sr. No	Particulars	Values
1	Current Age	30
2	Retirement Age	58
3	Monthly Salary (Basic+DA)	35,000
4	Increase in Salary	10.00%
5	Contribution from Salary	12.00%
6	Current EPF Balance	0
7	Rate of Interest	8.50%
8	Value at Retirement	33,559,758

So, the deficit for retirement fund is huge even after considering the EPF maturity.

Although modern medical science has increased the life expectancy but has increased medical expenses substantially.What if someone meets up with some of the critical illness or might result him to be bedridden during his working tenure or Retirement age.

Now a days it's easily noticeable that in every household there is atleast one of the family member who is taking medicines on daily basis.That too 2-5 pills a day.

It is the high time that we should give priority to retirement planning , otherwise it can happen that today we are moving in a luxurious car or living in a bigger house but after retirement might need to move to a smaller house or settle for an economy car or even need to cut down on statutory house hold expenses.

Remember, if planned properly retirement life can be the golden period of our life as these is the only period when we would have ample time and if have sufficient money can do everything which we couldn't do during working span due to job, aspirations or family commitments.

SO PLAN YOUR RETIREMENT TODAY ONLY AND HAVE A GREAT LIFE AHEAD