Thursday, November 10, 2011

Be a Lazy Investor - Saving Interest deregulated

Last week RBI came out with one of the historic decision in Indian banking history by freeing the savings bank rate. It did came out like a Diwali gift from RBI governor.I think every bank account holder would feel delighted with this decision.

Within hours of the Mr.Subbarao's announcement two of the private banks came with an advertisement about increase in Saving interest rate of full page in leading national news paper.

No doubt it will create a big hole in the profitability of some of the big banks balance sheet. But, will it really benefit account holders?

Let us evaluate:

If your average balance in a saving account remain at a level of Rs.1.00 Lac, you would get richer by Rs.166 per month and for balance more then Rs.1.00 Lac additional 50 basis points.

I think for an Lazy investor who holds such big balances in his savings account is not bothered of getting Rs.166.00 or Rs.500 per month. If he would have been really concerned might have shifted his money to Liquid funds offered by mutual funds.

These are the funds favorite with corporates but retail investor were never keen to invest in it. Liquid funds can easily fill in the gap between saving bank account and bank FD's. It gives you return more than saving account (Presently in the range of 8.5 - 9%). The only difference is you can access funds at 1 day notice i.e liquidity is available to you in 1 day instead of instantly in case of Savings account.

From safety perspective although it also bears the tag line "Mutual fund investment are subject to Market read offer document.....". But history of the fund prooves that it is as safe as your savings account the NAV of a liquid fund has never been negative for a single day in its history.(As it invest in the papers of maturiy less then 90 days)

So, as an investor if you are looking at the better returns then Saving bank should shift your surplusses to Liquid funds instead of settling at 4 or 6% of saving account returns. Additional returns can take care of your monthly telephone bills and LPG cost or a weekend with your family.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

RETIREMENT - Aish or Without Cash


As an Indian we feel really proud to be one of the youngest country. But, there was time in 80's and 90's when the biggest worry for our country was rising population and because of that reason we started the campaign "Hum do Hamare Do". Today the same worry has become one of the biggest boon for our economy. 

Thanks to one of the report made by Goldmann Sachs way back in 2002 which brought this fact to limelight and resulted in biggest rally in the history of Indian equity market.




India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% hovers below the age of 35. It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37  for China and 48 for Japan.(source : wikipedia.org)

Population by Age and Sex for India
Year
Age
Both Sexes Population
Male Population
Female Population
2011
Total
1189172906
617039156
572133750
2011
0-4
118325346
62740231
55585115
2011
5-9
117592252
62539569
55052683
2011
10-14
116948795
62170835
54777960
2011
15-19
112247754
59507362
52740392
2011
20-24
105137174
55103535
50033639
2011
25-29
99548997
51787772
47761225
2011
30-34
93102734
48164565
44938169
2011
35-39
86435208
44407222
42027986
2011
40-44
76764881
39235679
37529202
2011
45-49
64989219
33146269
31842950
2011
50-54
54272103
27595085
26677018
2011
55-59
44170733
22361010
21809723
 SOURCE : U.S.Census Bureau, International Data Base.
There is no doubt India is going to be one of the strongest economy inspite of all the global, political or domestic factors.

But while looking at sparkling and shiny picture we forget there is one more fact hidden in the above data, From the above data it is clear that in next 25-30 years almost 50% of our present population would enter retirement.

For an average human being retirement age means to depend rest of his life on retirement corpus created during working span of his life. Just to understand effect of Inflation on our household exps.(inflation@8%) The cost  of present household exps. valued at Rs.25000 per month would become Rs.251000 PER MONTH after 30 years and would be Rs.1175000 PER MONTH  i.e 1.41 CRORE PER YEAR after 50 years. It really seems funny to talk of 50 years. But it is the fact of life for youngsters who are in 25-40 age group and should be eye opener for them to reconsider the amount of funds they might require in retirement age.
 
Future value of Exps. @8% Inflation rate

Post Independence the average age of an Indian was in the range of 50-55 years. But due to improved medical facilities and newer technologies it has gone up to 75-80 years(in urban India) and don't be surprised if it moves up to 95-100 years in next 30 years.

We need to seriously consider our retirement planning at an early age of our carrier or as soon as we realise its need. The biggest factor which can help us in accumulating such a bigger corpus is power of compounding and proper asset allocation.

Illustration: Let us consider that Shahid Kapoor is an young, dynamic IT employee whose age is 30 year. He plans to retire at age of 58 and he considers his expected life to be 90 years. His present household expense is Rs.25000/month and considers it to be same even after the retirement age. He feels inflation pre and post retirement to be 8%.

Now, considering above his house hold expenses at the age of 58 would be Rs.2588132.00/Year and if he manages to get return 2% more then the inflation rate post retirement i.e 10% (Net of Tax). He would need to have a retirement corpus of 6.32 Crore.

Particulars
Amount

Total Monthly Expenses
25,000
Total Annual Expenses
300,000

Inflation
8.00%
Current Age
30
Retirement Age
58
Life Expectancy
90
No. of Years for Retirement
28
Expenses in the First Year of Retirement
2,588,132

Retirement years (life expectancy-retirement age)
32
Inflation during Retirement Years
8.00%
Investment Returns on Retirement Corpus
10.00%
Net Returns
1.85%
Retirement Corpus Required
63,216,858

Deficit (Corpus Required-Assets Utilized)
63,216,858
No of Years for Retirement
28
Expected Investment Returns
15.00%
Lumpsum Funding Required (If Available)
1,262,680
Monthly Investments Required
12,352


It seems to be impossible to accumulate the above amount during the working tenure of 28 years for an average person. But it requires much lesser then the EMI you pay for your Sedan (car) , expecting a return of 15% you require to invest just Rs.12352.00 per month. So delay your purchase of car or house by 3 or 5 years and safeguard your retirement.

As there is no social security system available for citizen of India we need to plan and protect our retirement life ourselves. Many of Central or State government or employees Covered under EPF feel relaxed that their retirement would be taken care of by there EPF account. Just showing below the value of EPF account of Mr.Shahid Kapoor present salary Rs.35000/Month and expects to appreciate 10% YOY.


Sr. No
Particulars
Values
1
Current Age
30
2
Retirement Age
58
3
Monthly Salary (Basic+DA)
35,000
4
Increase in Salary
10.00%
5
Contribution from Salary
12.00%
6
Current EPF Balance
0
7
Rate of Interest
8.50%
8
Value at Retirement
33,559,758
So, the deficit for retirement fund is huge even after considering the EPF maturity.

Although modern medical science has increased the life expectancy but has increased medical expenses substantially.What if someone meets up with some of the critical illness or might result him to be bedridden during his working tenure or Retirement age.

Now a days it's easily noticeable that in every household there is atleast one of the family member who is taking medicines on daily basis.That too 2-5 pills a day.

It is the high time that we should give priority to retirement planning , otherwise it can happen that today we are moving in a luxurious car or living in a bigger house but after retirement might need to move to a smaller house or settle for an economy car or even need to cut down on statutory house hold expenses.

Remember, if planned properly retirement life can be the golden period of our life as these is the only period when we would have ample time and if have sufficient money can do everything which we couldn't do during working span due to job, aspirations or family commitments.

SO PLAN YOUR RETIREMENT TODAY ONLY AND HAVE A GREAT LIFE AHEAD