Saturday, September 8, 2018

*Time to reset expectations*

Investoshashtra !!!📜📜📜
इनवेस्टोशास्त्र !!!📜📜📜

We are again entering election season, whereby every political leader or party will try to divert attention from real issues and divide us on the basis of religion and casteism.

"Rome was not built in a day and India is an under construction country, thodi dhul to udegi". We are at an inflection point and need to overcome such pity issues. *It's time to reset expectations and concentrate on bigger issues viz employment and housing for all, better cleanliness and hygiene, medical facilities, education, infrastructure etc.*

Similarly, I think it's time for investors to reset their expectation from equity investing as well.

Historically, index has given an average return of 15% and we assume it as an standard for calculating future returns for financial planning.

But, we need to understand logic behind the number 15%. Historically we have seen average inflation of 8-9% and equity generated real return of 6% (15%-9%) (net of inflation).

Now as we know RBI/MPC stated objective to keep inflation in 4% +/-2% range.

If we add real return of 6% then figure of 11-12% will be genuine return expectation from equity over a long term.

Secondly, enough liquidity is flowing in equity market due to TINA effect (there is no alternative for investment) making it more and more costlier, so chances of making additional brownie point there is also limited.

*So, It's time to reset return expectations and alter your financial plan, otherwise chances are high that you might end up way short of required amount.*

Have a fantastic weekend.

Raj Talati

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