"SAFETY"- No such word in Financial Dictionary

As per dictionary.com meaning of safety defined as: the state of being safe; freedom from the occurrence or risk of injury, danger, or loss.

On Googling for meaning of SAFETY in financial terms, I could not find a single dictionary which explains - safety. I did found words like : safe harbour, safety net, safe heaven etc etc...and the meaning of any of them didn't matched with dictionary meaning.

Investopedia.com do define "safe assets" as 

"Assets which, in and of themselves, do not carry a high likelihood of lawsuit risk. Mere ownership of this type of asset does not expose the asset owner to a significant risk of litigation.

Assets such as stocks, mutual funds, bonds, bank accounts and your personal residence are examples of safe assets." Which is totally different from what Indian investor thinks.

The recent development of Cyprus prompted me to search for meaning of "SAFETY in financial world".

First let me take you through some facts about pattern of Investment of Indian investor - As per the RBI's 2011-12 annual report bank FD's or contractual savings(Small Savings Scheme, LIC) constitutes almost 85% of total financial savings where as currency is almost 10% leaving 4-5% for Equities. 

The obvious reason for such a high allocation to FD is SAFETY. We perceive word safety as "To get back the capital and Interest on maturity date without any volatility". That might be the reason we rely mostly on all the government institutions like : Post offices, LIC, PSU Banks.

But, fallout of some of the biggest bank and government institution in U.S and Europe are the best example that even Govt. institutions are riskier at times and we may end up losing part of our money. Why to go to U.S we have example of our own government sponsored UTI US'64 scheme wherein government did paid back money of investors but with a delay of 6 years and that too in the form of 6% tax free bonds.(Just think of condition of a father who had invested money for his son's education or daughter's marriage)

Regarding Guarantee for repayment of Bank FD, RBI portal says "The deposits kept in different branches of a bank are aggregated for the purpose of insurance cover and a maximum amount upto Rupees one lakh is paid."  subject to bank have paid premium to deposit insurance and credit guarantee corporation .

Now, Let's understand what has happened in Cyprus, just to bail out economy "Government has imposed tax on bank deposits in Cyprus, they are taxed @6.75% on their  deposits less then EURO 100000.00 and @9.75 for more then that ".In simple terms one fine day suddenly government reduced your bank balances as well as FD value by 6.75%- 9.75%. Just think how would you feel if you woke up in the morning and found that government has decided to take away 6.75% of your money".

Even in case of India it is happening that our FD are reduced by almost 4-5% every year. Let me explain you how : The current CPI inflation rate is about 10.50% and Tax free FD rates of SBI is 5.78% (8.50% less 32% Tax rate). So the cost of goods which I can purchase today for Rs.100 becomes Rs.110.50 (CPI@10.50%) at the end of year whereas my FD value net of tax comes to Rs.106.00. So to buy the same goods I need to add Rs.4.50 to my FD amount, don't you think even we are paying a tax of 4%-5% year on year on our bank FD.

The purpose of highlighting above facts is not that we should not invest in FD's but we need to understand that there is no such word as safe asset class. The fall of 15% in Gold in last 3 months has proved even the safest asset class can be volatile at times.

We are now a part of the global investor community. The purpose of an investor seating in other part of the world is to make profit from his investment. Wherever and whenever he finds an opportunity he will buy into it and sells out in case of uncertainty. He is not concerned with asset class i.e. Debt, Equity,Real Estate or Commodities like Gold,Silver,Oil,Copper etc...

So it is mere foolishness to think that price of your investment in any asset class can grow perpetually or safe from all risks.

The only way to save yourself from getting in trap of any asset class is to follow a proper asset allocation strategy (Also read ;key-to-wealth-creation-asset-allocation.)

looking at above facts we can either act like an Ostrich who hides his face in the sand when attacked by a predator (assuming that if you can't see it , then anyone else also don't see you) or can take informed decision of how much amount to be allocated to FD,Gold, Real Estate or Equity so that we or our family do not need to compromise on future Dreams or Goals.

Consult your financial planner to advise you on proper asset allocation.

God to India's rescue - Strong case to overweight Equity

Mannu Singh, who was in financial difficulty, walked into a temple and started to pray. ''Listen God -I know I haven't been perfect but I really need to win the lottery. I don't have a lot of money. Please help me out.'' He left the temple, a week went by, and he hadn't won the lottery, so he walked to a church ''Come on, God,'' he said. ''I really need this money. My mom needs surgery and I have bills to pay. Please let me win the lottery.'' a week went by, and he didn't win the lottery. So, he went to a mosque and started to pray again. ''You're starting to disappoint me, God,'' he said. ''I've prayed and prayed. If you just let me win the lottery, I'll be a better person. I don't have to win the jackpot, just enough to get me out of debt. I'll give some to charity, even. Just let me win the lottery.'' Many thought this did it, so he got up and walked outside.

The clouds opened up and a booming voice said, ''Mannu, my son please please please.....atleast buy a lottery ticket.''

Similar is the situation of India. Right now we want our growth to be in place, inflation to be under control, rupee to get stronger, get rid of corruption, reduce current account deficit, reduce fiscal deficit. 

By looking at India's Pathetic situation it seems god has felt pity on us and have bought a lottery ticket and served it to us on a platter.

The biggest worry for India as of now is twin deficits i.e. Current account deficit (CAD) and Fiscal deficit. Although our finance minister is making sincere efforts to control it, by increasing import duty on gold , reducing subsidies, cutting expenses etc. etc  but all efforts are in vain. 

It seems suddenly god has listened to prayers of all the Indians.

As mentioned in my earlier Blog  "Gold : Is it really safe anymore????" ( I did pointed out that gold can't keep on increasing and would see drastic fall when positions unwinds)  In its report RBI points out, as a ratio to the CAD, gold imports were a whopping 71.9 in FY12. As a proportion of the balance of trade, gold imports were 21% in the first half of FY13. So gold import is biggest negative for our balance of payment. With recent fall of almost 15% in gold prices will breathe a big sigh of relief and will improve our CAD.

Apart from gold another big worry for India is OIL. India imports over 70 per cent of its oil demand. So a 10% rise in oil prices result in a 0.6 percent fall in growth while in the full pass-through situation, it can reduce the growth by 0.9 percent and vice versa. The Best news is that even oil has corrected to sub $100 level for 1st time in 9 months is big positive for us.

Fall in prices of Gold as well as Oil will help us to bring down current account deficit, which will inturn strengthen our currency.

Subsidy on Diesel and Kerosene adds up to our Fiscal deficit and increases inflation. So fall in oil prices also narrows down the fiscal deficit as well as inflation.

Icing on the cake is that WPI inflation has fallen to 40 month low of 5.96%.

From the above facts I strongly feel that RBI has to completely change its focus from fighting inflation to growth, which will help in generating jobs and help corporates to grow. We can expect rate cuts from RBI in policy review due on May 3rd.

All the biggest concern as far equity market is already addressed by falling Gold Prices,Oil Prices and Inflation which lays down a strong foundation for start of a new bull run. I don't say that market will start performing immediately. But, from asset allocation point of view it is time tor rebalance your portfolio and if your are into tactical asset allocation its time to be overweight on equities.